Chief Executive of Radix UK since 2019, Ben is a political strategist, writer and broadcaster. In 2021, he led the merger between Radix think tank and the Big Tent Ideas Festival and he continues to take overall responsibility for Radix Big Tent’s growing programme to promote system renewal.
Former Chief of Staff and Campaign Director for then Liberal Democrat Leader, Tim Farron MP, Ben was also previously Chief Executive of the Movement for Reform Judaism and prior to that a Partner at City Public Relations firm, Luther Pendragon.
Last and least?
Over the past few weeks, Radix Big Tent has offered thoughts on the challenges facing each of the major parties ahead of their annual conferences.
One of Keir Starmer’s better lines in Liverpool was “The Tories…. Remember them?” They are of course the official Opposition with over 119 Parliamentarians or, to put it another way, 114 seats more than the seventh largest Parliamentary group, Reform UK. But who knew? Who cares?
Polls change. A little over a year into a Parliament there is plenty of time for Labour to turn things around. Indeed, while they may seem to be in a particularly deep hole, for a new government finding itself on the receiving end of howls of protest is not unusual. Whatever the question formally asked, the one we know voters answer in polls and midterm elections is not “which party will you vote for at the next General Election?” but “how do you think the Government is doing?” A party with four more years to set the agenda, demonstrate progress and make some financial giveaways should not panic (yet).
In contrast, an Opposition which has failed to clean up in such circumstances - let alone has slipped to fourth in the polls with its lowest ever vote share – faces an existential threat. The defection of Danny Kruger MP – an old friend of Big Tent - to Reform UK suggests he, at least, has concluded that the jig is up.
Danny’s record as an adviser doesn’t necessarily suggest the soundest of political judgements: he is purported to be the author of David Cameron’s infamous hug-a-hoodie speech; he dismissed Johnson’s behaviour during Partygate as “minor slips” and endorsed Suella Braverman at the subsequent leadership election (although to be fair the rest of his party chose Liz Truss, so who’s to judge?)
Yet despite all this he remains (or at least remained until last month) a real intellectual force within the Conservative party. While Robert Jenrick maybe showing the party’s surest grasp of political communication, it was Kruger who was most likely to have them identifying compelling policies to communicate.
While the departures of Andrea Jenkins and Nadine Dorres are likely to have come as a relief to many saner Conservatives, the fact that Kruger has thrown in his lot with Nigel Farage is particularly bad news for them. Because, in addition to being a creative and effective thinker, Kruger is also hugely ambitious and he now clearly sees that ambition as far more likely to be fulfilled by Reform.
And if Kruger, then who else? It is hard to believe that he will be the last of his parliamentary colleagues to reach this conclusion. Rumours swirl of potentially dozens of further defections. A steady trickle could easily become a stream.
That is the unfiltered challenge facing Kemi Badenoch this weekend in Manchester. She has very deliberately taken her time to carve out a political agenda. Policy reviews have been set up and messaging has focussed on the Government’s mistakes rather than offering solutions this early in a Parliament: the standard course in opposition.
The trouble is that this is not the standard Parliament. Time is running out for the Conservatives to establish a raison d’etre. Jenrick’s approach is tactically effective but strategically disastrous: there simply is not enough space for the Conservatives on the Trumpian right. All he can offer voters is own-brand cola rather than the real thing.
Badenoch seems still to be vacillating between Reform-light and some anti-wokish alternative, but a strategy built on rolling back net zero – which her own party supported enthusiastically - is unpopular with the public and unlikely to be game-changing.
But the Conservatives do have a potential route back. At the end of the day, in the midst of a continuing cost of living crisis, the only thing which really matters to voters is the economy, stupid. The culture wars stuff, even immigration, are only a distraction from the meat and drink of politics. Immigration is a proxy for someone to blame about economics.
As the official leader of the Opposition, Kemi Badenoch possesses a unique platform, week in week out to hammer the Prime Minister on his Government’s failure to revive growth. She needs to silence the Jenrick ‘voices off’ and instead make this the Conservatives' sole mission. She needs to offer an credible alternative economic vision and hope that by the time the next election comes round the electorate has forgotten that the Conservatives had 14 years to tackle the problem themselves. In that she has the advantage that it seems hardly believable that this lot were in power just 15 months ago....
This Conference season the Conservatives come last chronically and politically. Unless Badenoch seizes control of her party they could soon be least as well.
