Chief Executive of Radix UK since 2019, Ben is a political strategist, writer and broadcaster. In 2021, he led the merger between Radix think tank and the Big Tent Ideas Festival and he continues to take overall responsibility for Radix Big Tent’s growing programme to promote system renewal.
Former Chief of Staff and Campaign Director for then Liberal Democrat Leader, Tim Farron MP, Ben was also previously Chief Executive of the Movement for Reform Judaism and prior to that a Partner at City Public Relations firm, Luther Pendragon.
The Political Progressives will only Defeat Themselves
The polls have been pretty steady since the Greens breakthrough was underlined by their victory in Denton and Gorton. Since then, they, Labour and the Conservatives have all been neck and neck, switching places and oscillating between 16 and 22 percent, although with little suggestion that any of this movement is the result of more than sampling errors or different polling methodologies.
Meanwhile, while the 3-5% decline in Reform support is clearly significant, it is far from terminal: to continue to lead a five-horse race with around a quarter of the vote could still deliver them a shed load of seats under an electoral system clearly unfit for the purpose.
To complete the overview, the Lib Dems are stuck on 11-14% and going nowhere. I find the party’s lack of ambition depressing and completely understandable: after more than half a century of being punished by the vagaries of First Past the Post, the fact that it has suddenly turned to their advantage has proved irresistable. The quid pro quo, however, is that while the other ‘new’ parties contemplate how they might win hundreds of seats, the height of Lib Dem ambition is little more than retaining what they hold.
Even with the randomising nature of First Past the Post, it is hard to see how - with little more than 10% dividing these five parties (and with the Nationalists also competitive both north and west of their respective borders) – any party will be able to gain an outright majority in three years’ time.
This raises two questions: first, could the May elections change anything and, second, if not, what should each of the parties be doing to improve their prospects in 2028/29?
The answer to the first question is relatively straightforward: the steadiness of the polls mean that the narrative of these elections can be predicted with a reasonably high degree of certainty, even if the exact results council by council and nation by nation cannot. And it won’t change a thing:
The Nationalists will win most seats in both Scotland and Wales and while Plaid will be challenged by Reform in the latter, they will form the largest party in any subsequent coalition, not least because no one is ready to do a deal with Reform. In Scotland this means literally more of the same, and in Wales, Plaid will govern much like their Labour predecessors with a little less stigma.
As a result, Reform will have to wait to get their hands on a national Government and frankly that’s in their own interests: their numerous failings with real power following last year’s County Council victories suggest that they are very far from ready to take control, and any high profile victory will – in three years’ time – only serve to undermine their claims to offer a ‘real political reset’. So fortunately for them they will be able to continue to be the outsider even as they gain a little more power.
Labour is in for a battering, in Wales in particular, Scotland slightly less so, and across England. This will have a real impact on those councils it currently runs – they will lose more than half of what they currently hold – but it will not change the PM (unless Mandelson eventually drags him under) and the party’s ultimate fortunes will still depend, in the words of James Carville, on “the economy, stupid”.
The Conservatives will also obviously lose councils and councillors. It will leave them with even fewer foot-soldiers but won’t significantly change the overall Conservative narrative. They aren’t going to be on the comeback trail anytime soon.
In contrast, only the Greens will enjoy a substantial and significant bump, but it is too soon to say how sustainable it might be. They will end up controlling a swathe of major councils and, based on the Lib Dem model, will hope to turn these into Parliamentary seats in due course. Consistently, the most important thing for third, fourth and fifth parties to prove is that they can win and that is what the Greens are about to do.
So, what does all this sound and fury signify?
Despite the massive shift of support between parties within the broadly right wing and progressive blocs, the parties of the ‘left’ – Labour, the Lib Dems, the Greens and the Nationalists – continue to lead the parties of the right by 55% to 45% - almost exactly the same as the position at the 2024 General Election.
In 2024, this was enough to give the centre left a massive majority. It worked that way because Labour and the Lib Dems avoided wasting almost any votes in seats in which it was the other party that was competitive.
But in 2028/29, there will be another major party in the progressive column – the Greens. What’s more, the Greens’ 28/29 battles look almost exclusively to be against Labour.
Whichever party ends up winning individual seats means a lot of wasted progressive votes. Unless Labour and the Greens come to some sort of informal accommodation (and I am definitely not talking electoral pacts) my guess is they will each take the other down, with Reform and to a lesser extent the Conservatives being the beneficiaries.
In 2024, that 55% to 45% progressive/right vote split gave the respective blocs roughly 500 versus 130 seats. That was clearly massively disproportionate but serves to illustrate how wildly results can swing with FPTP.
Waste 20% of the progressive bloc’s vote on fighting one another and the right will have a majority of the meaningful vote share and could easily end up with the majority of seats. That should give Labour and the Greens pause for thought.
Then again, the Government could take the latest advice of former Labour leader, Neil Kinnock, and change the electoral system in time to ensure the majority bloc takes the majority share of seats. I suspect, however, that is not yet a lesson they are ready to learn…
To judge Ben’s predictions against May’s actual results register now for Radix Big Tent’s ‘Meet the Leaders’ webinar, at 5.00pm on Thursday 14th May with leading psephologist, Professor Tony Travers.
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