The UK’s political landscape is undergoing a turbulent change. More parties than ever have meaningful political support, yet our institutions fail to reflect that change. The gap between the public and the politics that serves them is shaping party strategies and the legitimacy of government policy. 

The 2024 general election was our most disproportional ever. Votes were spread widely across parties, yet First Past the Post converted this fragmentation into a misleading yet commanding parliamentary majority. Labour took total control of the legislative agenda with just over a third of the vote.

Fragmentation changes incentives for both voters and parties. Voters are pushed to vote tactically, prioritising who can win locally over who best represents them. Parties focus on narrow coalitions rather than broad appeal. Small shifts in vote share can produce dramatic changes in the level of agency a party has in our politics. With May’s local elections approaching, these themes will be on full display, and we could see the election of elected officials on record low vote shares. 

In 2025, only 16% of councillors were elected with majority support, down from 65% in 2021. This represents a step change in democratic mandates, and will materially impact their abilities to govern decisively and effectively. Most councillors now take office knowing that a large majority of voters chose someone else. Representatives elected on thin mandates  have less room to make hard trade-offs, less authority to challenge vocal minorities, and a weaker claim when decisions inevitably provoke opposition. If this pattern continues into 2026 and beyond, as we expect, the danger is not just political fragmentation, but paralysis, and a crisis of trust in the ability of our democracy to deliver.

This raises fundamental questions. When many voters see little connection between their vote and political power, legitimacy suffers. When parties focus on tactical calculation over policy, competition narrows rather than broadens. And when minority support is routinely and distortionally amplified into false majorities, public trust in the system is at risk. This debate is permeating mainstream discussion. Late last year, The Economist described our democracy under this broken voting system as owing more to Las Vegas than Edmund Burke. 

The pattern is now clear. First Past the Post produces governments with weak mandates and fragile democratic legitimacy. That thin public support follows governments into office, undermining authority and cohesion. It's no wonder why recent administrations have struggled with instability, infighting and chaotic early years. The public is crying out for change, but strong mandates cannot be delivered on weak support. This is no longer an occasional distortion. Instability has become a structural feature of British politics.

Parliament is also waking up to these challenges. There is growing cross-party support for examining whether First Past the Post is still fit for purpose in a fragmented political landscape. The APPG for Fair Elections, the largest APPG in Parliament, has set out a credible, independent and expert-led process in the form of a National Commission on Electoral Reform to propose a new voting system that delivers for the British people. MPs now recognise that repeated distortions threaten voter confidence and effective governance. The debate is no longer centred around whether the issue exists, it is quickly moving towards how to respond. 

The APPG for Fair Elections is proud to support the UK in a Changing Europe in convening a discussion about how our democracy needs to change in light of our changing party system. Chaired by Catherine Barnard, the panel includes Lisa Smart MP, Liberal Democrat and Vice-Chair of the APPG; Labour MP Sean Woodcock; and Rob Ford, University of Manchester, a leading expert on voting behaviour. Together, they will explore how parties are responding to fragmentation, what the volatility around this year’s local elections reveal, and what it means for the future of the UK’s electoral system.

With multi-party competition now a structural feature of UK politics, the question is no longer whether the system amplifies fragmentation, it’s what we should do to address it. This online event provides a forum to tackle that question head-on, rigorously and openly. 

Join the conversation on the 20th of January here: UKICE Lunch Hour: Changing party politics in the UK - UK in a changing Europe.

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