Chief Executive of Radix UK since 2019, Ben is a political strategist, writer and broadcaster. In 2021, he led the merger between Radix think tank and the Big Tent Ideas Festival and he continues to take overall responsibility for Radix Big Tent’s growing programme to promote system renewal.
Former Chief of Staff and Campaign Director for then Liberal Democrat Leader, Tim Farron MP, Ben was also previously Chief Executive of the Movement for Reform Judaism and prior to that a Partner at City Public Relations firm, Luther Pendragon.
The big winners from this month’s local elections were…no one.
Reform UK and the Greens gained almost 2000 individual council seats between them but representing an individual ward comes with very little power. It is only by taking control of whole councils that political parties are able to exercise real power. It is only now, a few weeks after the elections - as deals are done and not done - that the full story of the night is emerging.
The headline is that Labour lost outright control of well over half the 66 councils it held at the beginning of the evening, leaving it with just 28 of those contested this year. Reform UK picked up fourteen new councils to add to the ten they won last year, but this is still just six percent of the primary local authorities in the UK, as compared with, say, the 41 councils where the Lib Dems exercise outright control.
This is not say that Reform did not have a good night, but with gains of 23 councils, the really big winner was No Overall Control (NOC). Indeed, no one political party now has outright control in four out of ten English councils. This has massive implications for local government and is a trend only likely to continue as we move from a two-ish- to a multi-party political system.
What will this growth in no overall control mean? Well, of course, the answer varies from area to area:
The least common outcome is a formal cross-party coalition although there are still a number of such examples. A relatively stable Lib Dem-Labour pact runs South Gloucestershire with a comfortable majority, even though the Conservatives remain the largest party. In Southend-on-Sea the Lib-Labs are joined by some independents to give them a comfortable majority of 28-23 over the Conservatives and Reform UK.
In contrast, a rainbow coalition of Lib Dems, Greens and Labour plus one independent will take control of the newly created West Sussex Council. The new administration has just two more seats than Reform UK and the Conservatives combined, and so look set for a rocky time.
A similar arrangement on Worcestershire County Council made recently to kick out a minority Reform UK administration looks equally unstable, although the principle that my enemy’s enemy is my friend could be an effective glue.
Both Labour and the Conservatives have been told not to work with the Greens, while Reform UK is unlikely to join ‘formal coalitions' to run councils, both because they would rather criticise others… and because no one wants to deal with them! As a result, despite other attempts to establish coalitions around the country, the more common outcome of the local elections is for one or other party to assume minority control and to rely on the others not to gang up together to vote them down.
For example, the Lib Dems have resumed control of Hull Council despite losing their majority, on the basis that opposition Labour and Reform UK councillors are extremely unlikely to be able to reach agreement to defeat them.
The new Green administration of Haringey Council is dependent on Labour and the Lib Dems not coming to an agreement to bring them down, which looks more risky.
Meanwhile in Barnet, the single Green councillor has enabled Labour to retain power despite a dead heat between Labour and the Conservatives, an outcome that also seems to lack permanency.
And in Birmingham it is hard to see any arrangement – however unstable - being reached: Reform is the largest party but with just 23 of the 101 councillors and neither a right wing Reform/Con pact nor a traffic light Labour/Lib Dems/Green coalition would get close to a majority, even in the unlikely event that such deals could be constructed.
If Birmingham or any other council is paralysed and unable to set the legally required budget or pass essential governance functions, all its new discretionary spending will be frozen and, in extreme cases of prolonged dysfunction, the Secretary of State for Housing, Communities and Local Government has statutory powers to intervene, directing the council on how to operate, sending in appointed commissioners or forcing the restructuring of the authority.
But what does this all mean in practice?
The 2010-15 Conservative – Lib Dem Coalition now looks like a model of stability and in a number of respects it was a rather successful government, especially by comparison with what has came after. It was dependent, however, on the establishment of a clear partnership agreement within a few days of taking power and, even then, the Coalition ran out of steam in its last couple of years.
This, however, is rarely the model for NOC local authorities. Instead, where there are minority administrations with, in effective, ‘confidence and supply’ agreements, they might struggle to set direction and oppositions are incentivised to ‘stop stuff from happening’, which can lead to stagnation and inertia. In the context of planning and economic development – two key responsibilities for many local authorities – such an approach can be particularly damaging. Quite simply, nothing happens.
And these are only the least bad options. Birmingham is unlikely to be alone in being unable to establish an effective administration. Superficially, the idea of government run by civil servants without interference from the political classes is attractive, but the evidence is it leads to drift and (further) undermines confidence in democracy.
Like all tiers of Government, councils require clear leadership and decision-making. The rise of NOC threatens that and this, in turn, might further undermine the already fragile confidence in democracy. It is up to our new local leaders to show they are up for the challenge of power and to reach out across the aisle.
Rate this post
Leave a comment
Please login or register to leave a comment on this post.
